An examination of the quiet revolution taking place in America’s seafood aisles, rising costs, and changing consumer behavior. Right now, stop at the seafood counter in any American grocery store. For months, the costs associated with those tiny white tags have been rising, sometimes in silence and other times not.
The price of frozen shrimp, which was a few dollars cheaper two years ago, is now so high that it makes you reconsider. The numbers next to the salmon fillets convey a narrative of their own, even though they appear stunning beneath the display lights. Since late 2025, seafood inflation in the US has surpassed overall food inflation, making it impossible for millions of consumers to ignore.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Topic | Seafood as a Hedge Against Inflation |
| Industry | Seafood / Food Retail / Agriculture |
| Key Markets | United States, China, Norway, ASEAN, EU |
| U.S. Retail Seafood Sales (2023) | USD 18.9 Billion |
| Inflation Impact | Frozen seafood prices up 8.4% (Dec 2025); fresh up 1.6% |
| Key Species Affected | Shrimp, Salmon, Cod, Tuna, Crab, Saithe |
| Key Report | FMI Power of Seafood (Annual) |
| Reference | FAO Globefish – Fish Economy |
The idea that seafood could serve as a sort of inflation hedge has been around for a while, both in investor circles and at conferences for the food industry. The reasoning goes something like this people will always pay for high quality nutrition, seafood is a premium protein, and protein is necessary.
It’s an interesting theory. However, the reality at the sushi counters and in the refrigerated aisles is rather messier. According to FMI’s Power of Seafood research, retail seafood sales in the United States fell 3.1% to USD 18.9 billion in 2023. The hardest hit was frozen seafood, which saw a 5.8% drop in sales. These figures don’t represent a category that protects people from financial hardship.
In hindsight, what transpired was expected. Americans rediscovered their kitchens during the COVID 19 pandemic. Sales of seafood reached all time highs in 2020 and 2021 as consumers experimented with oven baked salmon and homemade shrimp scampi. Then there was inflation. By 2022, costs had increased to the point where customers were drawn to beef, pork, and chicken proteins that were still perceived as being more reasonably priced per serving. According to 37% of consumers polled by FMI, they notably reduced their consumption of seafood due to inflation. That amounts to over one third of the market being lost.
However, there has been an intriguing undercurrent going on. During the pandemic, home cooked fish became popular, and this trend has stuck. Even though overall consumption has decreased, more Americans are cooking fish at home than in 2019. American customers’ perceptions of fish have evolved, however subtly, as a result of altered routines. During lockdown, people learned how to pan sear fish, and they didn’t completely forget.
The global picture adds layers of complexity that make the inflation question even harder to answer simply. China’s tariff revisions, starting January 2025, upped import charges on shrimp, Alaska pollock, and abalone from 2 percent to 5 percent. The United States has floated blanket tariffs of 10 percent on all imports, with possible penalties climbing as high as 60 percent on some Chinese items.
China supplies a major share of American whitefish, shrimp, and processed seafood items. A large tariff escalation there would almost probably force costs higher for importers, and those costs would land, eventually, on the consumer’s receipt.
Meanwhile, shipping logistics remain unstable. Vessels have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope due to security concerns in the Red Sea, which has increased transit time and fuel expenses. Importers were sufficiently alarmed by labor strikes at U.S. ports in late 2024 to diversify their entry points. The international seafood trade may be permanently plagued by these logistical challenges.
Customers in the UK have reacted with a level of pragmatism that is worth observing. Cod consumption at home declined around 18 percent in recent years, according to Kantar statistics. However, the whitefish category changed rather than collapsed. Consumers shifted toward species like saithe, a relative of cod that was less expensive and had a slightly higher protein content. In a survey conducted by the Norwegian Seafood Council, nearly half of respondents stated that they usually avoid seafood because it is expensive. With robust Barents Sea stocks, Saithe has discreetly begun to close the gap.
It’s difficult to ignore the emergence of a pattern. Customers don’t just stop buying seafood when prices rise. They make a downward trade. They exchange species. They reach for the frozen tilapia rather than the Atlantic salmon, and the canned tuna rather than the fresh ahi. As Americans hunkered down and ate at home during the January U.S. winter storms, shelf stable seafood sales shot up alongside frozen and fresh categories. By December 2025, the cost of frozen and shelf stable seafood had increased by 8.4%, but consumers continued to make purchases, albeit in different ways. Demand curves do not break, but they do bend.
Another wrinkle is added by Gen Z. Younger consumers are more likely to look for high protein, health conscious foods, according to McKinsey research. They’re less brand loyal and potentially more open to unfamiliar species if the price and nutritional profile align. Seafood’s story omega 3s, lean protein, micronutrient density hasn’t changed. The question is whether that story can compete with sticker shock at the register.
So is seafood a hedge against inflation? Not in any straightforward sense. Prices have climbed relentlessly, tariffs threaten to push them higher, and consumers have shown they’ll walk away when costs feel unreasonable. But something more nuanced is happening.
The market is proving adaptive reshaping around alternative species, home preparation, and shifting generational tastes in ways that suggest resilience, if not immunity. The can of sardines in the pantry might not be an investment thesis. But for millions of families doing the math at the grocery store, recalculating what protein they can afford this week, it’s starting to look like common sense.
i) https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/foodservice-retail/us-seafood-inflation-spiked-at-grocery-stores-to-end-2025
ii) https://www.fmi.org/newsroom/news-archive/view/2023/03/10/inflation-causes-increase-in-seafood-price-drop-in-consumption-after-record-sales-during-pandemic
iii) https://www.mynewsdesk.com/seafood/pressreleases/alternative-fish-species-could-edge-into-spotlight-as-consumers-grapple-with-inflation-3399079