Last year when I saw tons of silver anchovies vanish into industrial grinders while standing in a fishmeal processing facility outside of Lima it became evident that a major change was occurring in the world’s food systems. An almost prophetic mood was created by the combination of vehicle fumes and the sharp scent of fish rendering. This was the front line of what industry insiders increasingly characterize as an impending resource crisis not just another day at a processing factory.
The similarities to petroleum are disturbing. Similar to oil fishmeal and fish oil are now necessary commodities that drive entire sectors. Their supply is limited and becoming more erratic much like oil. Similar to oil these resources are becoming more scarce and costly due to geopolitical factors and climate change. Rabobank seafood analyst Novel Sharma states unequivocally: This is not a sustainability concern. It has to do with scarcity.
| Key Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Analyst | Novel Sharma |
| Position | RaboResearch Seafood Analyst |
| Organization | Rabobank |
| Specialization | Aquaculture feed supply analysis |
| Notable Research | “Hooked on scarcity: Navigating aquafeed nutrition amid looming marine ingredients shortages” |
| Reference | https://www.rabobank.com |
Ninety percent of the world’s fishmeal and about seventy percent of its fish oil are already consumed by aquaculture. The proteins and omega 3 fatty acids that give farmed salmon their pink color and shrimp their plumpness come from these marine ingredients which are mainly ground up anchovies and sardines. The $280 billion aquaculture sector would not be able to continue in its current state without them.
The laws of mathematics are harsh. Aquaculture production is anticipated to increase by 12 million metric tons by 2033. In the meantime the fishmeal supplying wild fisheries have reached their sustainable limitations. El Niño weather patterns are increasingly disrupting cold water upwellings that are essential to Peru’s anchovy fishery which is the world‘s largest single source and accounts for around 20% of worldwide output. Seasons can be lost as those currents change.
It seems as though the industry is sleepwalking toward a precipice as this develops. According to Rabobank structural fishmeal shortages could occur as early as 2028 while fish oil shortages might appear the following year. Unless anything drastically changes these are mathematical inevitabilities rather than remote possibilities.
Although it’s unknown if innovation can keep up with the magnitude of the upcoming demand the race for alternatives has already started. Using whisky distillery waste a biotechnology company in Scotland called MiAlgae cultivates marine microalgae to produce omega 3 oils that can be used in place of fish oil in salmon diet. The company’s CEO Douglas Martin recognizes the basic issue despite the seeming attraction of the circular economy: The primary obstacles for microalgae are affordability and scale.
Globally similar tests are taking place. Using microalgal byproducts researchers at UC Santa Cruz created rainbow trout diet enhancing its palatability with taurine and lecithin. Traditional marine oils are being combined with algae substitutes by Norwegian salmon firms. Every invention is a step forward but the industry consensus is still sobering: these advancements aren’t growing quickly enough.
The financial effects extend well beyond fish farms. As feed costs change due to El Niño cycles and geopolitical concerns salmon prices have become more unstable. If feed costs continue to rise Chinese aquaculture producers who are already coping with an overabundance of numerous species may cut back on production which might cause supply shocks in international seafood markets.
Beneath industry sustainability boasts there is also an unsettling reality. Businesses brag about their lower Fish In Fish Out percentages but this statistic hides a more sinister truth. The majority of fishmeal and fish oil are used to manufacture luxury seafood for wealthy consumers in industrialized nations not to feed the world’s poor. Because they are fed these marine substances Norwegian salmon Japanese yellowtail and Mediterranean sea bass attract premium prices.
The industry’s practical acceptance of this new reality was summed up by Christine Lyngsgård Larsen of Norway’s Salmon Group: No one ingredient represents the perfect solution but bringing a variety together could minimize the negative trade offs. It’s a tactful way of indicating that the days of cheap plentiful marine feed are coming to an end.
Uncertainty is further increased by climate change. Anchovy populations in Peru are becoming less predictable due to shifting ocean temperatures rather than only fluctuating with El Niño. Boom and bust cycles that were formerly controllable are turning into chaotic disruptions that have the potential to ruin entire fishing seasons.
It became clear that aquaculture has to make a decision as I stood in that processing facility and saw the last plentiful fishery on Earth being turned into powder. The sector must either quickly diversify its feed sources and put up with increased production costs or it must deal with the same supply constraints that have traditionally caused economies reliant on oil to become unstable.
This seems to be understood by the shrimp and salmon growers who are funding research on insect meal and microalgae production. They’re not just searching for substitutes; they’re getting ready for a time when wild fish will be too valuable to be ground up for food. The speed at which these innovations may scale will determine whether that shift occurs peacefully or through a crisis.
The question is whether the fish business can reinvent itself before scarcity forces that change not if seafood will become the next oil. The ocean’s ability to supply inexpensive protein for pricey fish is nearing its limit and time is running out.
i) https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/eat-well/food-types/fish-and-shellfish-nutrition/
ii) https://www.globalseafood.org/advocate/fishmeal-and-fish-oil-alternatives-are-here-but-a-greater-scale-is-needed-for-true-impact/
iii) https://www.seafoodsource.com/news/supply-trade/upcoming-fishmeal-fish-oil-scarcities-will-require-swift-industry-action-rabobank-warns
iv) https://www.intrafish.com/markets/fishmeal-output-falls-sharply-amid-concern-over-key-fishery-landings/2-1-1986668